There are still many variables as to determine the actual impact of COVID - 19 on civil aviation such as duration, magnitude of the outbreak and containment measures, the degree of consumer confidence of air travel and economic conditions, etc. In 2020 World passenger traffic decline by 59% to 62%. Compared to the baseline (business as usual scenario) the International passenger traffic for 2020 would suffer overall reduction ranging from 65% to 66% of seats offered by airlines, 1,426 to 1,462 million passengers and approximately USD 257 to 264 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines. The domestic side would suffer overall reduction ranging from 40% to 41% of seats offered by airlines, 1,468 to 1,518 million passengers and approximately USD 131 to 136 billion potential loss of gross operating revenues of airlines.
Estimated Impact (2020) by Region *ICAO
| North America |
Latin America and the Caribbean |
Africa |
Europe |
Middle East |
Asia and Pacific |
Capacity:
International
-63% to -65%
Domestic
-42% to -43% |
Capacity:
International
-60% to -63%
Domestic
-54% to -56% |
Capacity:
International
-63% to -65%
Domestic
-57% to -59% |
Capacity:
International
-61% to -63%
Domestic
-38% to -39% |
Capacity:
International
-64% to -65%
Domestic
-48% to -50% |
Capacity:
International
-72% to -74%
Domestic
-37% |
Passenger (Mil):
International
-116 to -120
Domestic
-536 to -557 |
Passenger (Mil):
International
-84 to -87
Domestic
-140 to -144 |
Passenger (Mil):
International
-59 to -60
Domestic
-28 to -29 |
Passenger (Mil):
International
-632 to -648
Domestic
-133 to -135 |
Passenger (Mil):
International
-115 to -118
Domestic
-24 to -25 |
Passenger (Mil):
International
-420 to -429
Domestic
-607 to -628 |
Revenue (Bil USD):
International
-31 to -32
Domestic
-62 to -65 |
Revenue (Bil USD):
International
-17
Domestic
-12 |
Revenue (Bil USD):
International
-12 to -13
Domestic
-12 |
Revenue (Bil USD):
International
-89 to -91
Domestic
-11 |
Revenue (Bil USD):
International
-21
Domestic
-2 |
Revenue (Bil USD):
International
-87 to -89
Domestic
-42 to -43 |
The decline on Civil Aviation would affect other area aswell such as trade, tourism and also global economy. Bellow are some key indicators provided by notable institutions:
- Tourism: A decline in international tourism receipts of between USD 910 to 1,170 billion in 2020, compared to USD 1.5 trillion generated in 2019 with 100% of worldwide destinations having travel restrictions (by UNWTO)
- Trade: A fall of global merchandise trade volume by between 13% and 32% in 2020 compared to 2019 (by WTO)
- Global Economy: A projected -4.9% to -5.2% contraction in world GDP in 2020, far worse than during the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis (by IMF and World Bank)
On the subject of recovery Civil Aviation would normally follow the trend of Global Economy. On this subject there are four distinct shapes that could happen - L, U, W and V. Each have their own characteristics:
- L - Shape: This scenario exhibits a sharp decline in the economy, followed by a slow recovery period
- U- Shape: In this scenario the economy stagnates for a few quarters and up to two years before experiencing a relatively healthy rise back to its previous peak
- W - Shape: This scenario offers a tempting promise of recovery, dips back into a sharp decline, and then finally enters the full recovery period of up to two years.
- V - Shape: In this best-case scenario, the sharp decline in the economy is quickly and immediately followed by a rapid recovery back to its previous peak in less than a year, bolstered especially by economic measures and strong consumer spending.
There are still many uncertainty during this pandemic. The sentiments about a post-pandemic recovery will differ greatly. Each company, industry, CEOs must take a measurable and effective action to tackle all chalenges.
